THE ENVIRONMENT
A variety of methods and
standards are used to evaluate the viability of different
scientific explanations and theories. One such standard
is how well a theory predicts the outcome of an event,
and climate change theory has proven to be a strong
predictor. The
effects of putting massive amounts of carbon dioxide in
the air were predicted as long ago as the early 20th
century by Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius. Noted
oceanographer Roger Revelles 1957 predictions that
carbon dioxide would build up in the atmosphere and cause
noticeable changes by the year 2000 have been borne out
by numerous studies, as has Princeton climatologist Suki
Manabes 1980 prediction that the Earths poles would be first to see the effects of
global warming. Also in the 1980s, NASA climatologist
James Hansen predicted with high accuracy what the global
average temperature would be in 30 years time (now the
present day). Hansen's model predictions are a
shining example of a successful prediction in climate
science, said climatologist Michael Mann of
Pennsylvania State University. Schmidt says that
predictions by those who doubted global warming have failed to come true. Why
dont you trust a psychic? Because their predictions are wrong, he told LiveScience.
The credibility goes to the side that gets these
predictions right. Besides their successful
predictions, climate scientists have been assembling a
body of evidence that has been growing
significantly with each year, Mann said. Data from
tree rings, ice cores and coral reefs taken with
instrumental observations of air and ocean temperatures,
sea ice melt and greenhouse gas concentrations have all
emerged in support of climate change theory. There
are 20 different lines of evidence that the planet is
warming, and the same goes for evidence that greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere, Schmidt said.
All of these things are incontrovertible. Andrea Thompson,Live Science magazine,July 2007
One of the things that's always puzzled me about the
Big Bang is the notion of singularity. This theory cannot
predict behavior outside its domain, yet everything that
happens and all our other theories follow from it. The
immense improbability that modern science rests on, but
cares not to discuss, is the belief that the universe
sprang from nothing in a single moment. If you can
believe that, then it's very hard to see what you can't
believe."
Terence McKenna, in Chaos, Creativity, and Cosmic
Consciousness
They now say there is an unexpected black void in the
universe that has nothing detectable within it(It is even
"much bigger than expected "- ha ha the
journalists make you laugh don't they?!). However we have
black voids , cities on our planet that are poluting
thousands of people's lives - here is an example:
ZNet Commentary
Jakarta Voted - Keep Holding Your
Nose! August 26, 2007
By Andre Vltchek
Visit to the fourth largest urban area on earth (with
approximately 23 million inhabitants) may be hazardous to
your health. Although there are no exact statistics to
prove it and one can hardly rely on official data anyway,
the city of Jakarta is rapidly collapsing. It is terribly
polluted, but the local press stubbornly refrains from
conducting any serious investigation that would analyze
pollutants in the air. Visitors get often sick, unless
they stick to some luxury and fully sheltered hotels
equipped with air conditioners and air purifiers.
Eventually they succumb to the coughing spells, poisoned
by the grayish substance hanging over the capital;
substance which can be, if one uses some imagination,
still described as "air".
Many visitors also develop stomach ailments due to
appalling quality of local water supply and food. Some
simply collapse psychologically under the weight of sheer
ugliness of the place, where traffic jams are the main
landmarks of the capital city and where one has to drive
to the shopping malls in order to "take a
walk", as almost nothing 'public' survived decades
of 'pro-business' turbo-capitalism of Suharto and
post-Suharto era and that of the latest, outgoing
governor Sutiyoso.
Continuity is now guaranteed. In the city's first
gubernatorial election that took place on August 8th
(before the governor of Jakarta had been appointed by the
president or as in 2002, by local legislature), former
deputy governor Fauzi Bowo, life-long bureaucrat and
"urban planning specialist" (as he likes to be
described) backed by a medley 19 mainstream political
parties, won around 58 percent of the votes, comfortably
winning over Adang Daradjatun from conservative Islamic
"Prosperous Justice Party"(PKS).
Talents and abilities of the "urban specialist"
Fauzi Bowo are highly questionable. If anything, Mr. Bowo
and his outgoing boss, governor Sutiyoso, brought the
capital city closer to collapse. Jakarta is dotted with
modern skyscrapers as well as smelly, garbage-filled
canals with muddy water - the only "playground"
for hundreds of thousands of children. According to some
unofficial statistics (it seems that pollution is yet
another "sensitive issue" with almost no
reliable official data available), Jakarta is the third
most polluted city on earth after Katmandu (Nepal) and
New Delhi (India). This unflattering 3rd place is shared
with Chinese city of Chongqing.
"The UN reports that the city's drinking water
system is ineffective, leading 80 percent of Jakarta
inhabitants to use underground water, which has become
steadily depleted. In low-lying North Jakarta,
groundwater depletion has caused serious land subsidence,
making the area more vulnerable to flooding and allowing
seawater from the Java Sea to seep into the coastal
aquifers. According to Suyono Dikun, Deputy Minister for
Infrastructure at the National Development Planning
Board, more than 100 million people in Indonesia are
living without proper access to clean water",
reports Red Orbit in the article on the "Cities of
the Future". It is not surprising, as drinking water
had been privatized and ran as pro-profit enterprise by
French and British companies, "increasing prices and
decreasing quality", according to The Economist.
Deforestation, over-development and poor city planning
led to repeated and devastating floods. The most recent
one, on February 2nd 2007, displaced more than 350
thousand people, and destroyed property in more than 50%
of Jakarta's dwellings, as approximately 70 to 75 percent
of the city area had been flooded with water 4 meters
deep. Infrastructure damage and lost property amounted to
almost 600 million dollars. Great majority of the
population has no insurance.
City is choked by traffic jams and specialists are
warning that it is approaching permanent gridlock, unless
there are some dramatic changes in the very near future.
Jakarta has almost no public transportation system,
considering its size. Sutiyoso's brainchild: so called
bus ways (idea adopted from much smaller cities in South
America) never managed to fly. Part of the funds
disappeared in corruption, buses are (ridiculously)
equipped with only one door for uploading and downloading
of the passengers; elevators for disabled people never
arrived. One-way fare is going to climb to over 50 cents
in the country where the average monthly income is
approximately 65 dollars a month and where more than half
of the population lives on lesser than 2 dollars a day.
There is no transparency and accountability in the
governance. Much advertised "monorail" system
had to have its first line opened in 2007. Some of the
main avenues were blocked, traffic increased and the
citizens were asked to be patient as the city government
is trying to offer acutely needed transportation
alternatives. But at some point, construction of the
monorail simply stopped. Trees in the middle of the roads
were already cut down; ugly concrete pillars had been
driven into the earth, metal bars sticking several meters
high. There was no explanation given to the citizens. No
hotline to call, no information about the funds that
allegedly disappeared. Once again, the government had
shown profound spite for its own citizens. Local press
unfamiliar with anything even distantly resembling
investigative journalism decided not to ask uncomfortable
questions: small surprise in the country where the media
is owned, without exception, by big business.
Instead of monorail, outgoing governor Sutiyoso
introduced "water service", probably in order
to guarantee himself a place in the history of the city.
Two pathetic little "public" boats navigate 1.5
kilometers of polluted water of canal, looking like two
miniscule icebreakers cutting through the endless
rubbish. 'Service' is available only for a few hours, on
weekends: hardly a solution to almost permanent gridlock.
After being ruled for years by former general Sutiyoso,
Jakarta truly resembles filthy military barrack, or maybe
a mythical purgatory with its dark sky, endless chain of
vehicles, children begging and offering themselves at
several major intersections. Some beggars have faces
burned beyond recognition; others are showing what is
left of their amputated hands and legs, for a fee. And,
unlike in other Muslim countries that are broadcasting
only calls for prayer, citizens of Jakarta are bombarded
at least 6 hours a day by prayers and religious
recitations blasted at unbearable volume like in the
worst Orwellian nightmare, reassuring the majority and
reminding to minorities of who is really in charge.
There is almost nothing "public" left in the
capital. Jakarta has only a handful of small parks, of
which some are even charging entrance fee (like the one
on the coast in Ancol). The city has almost no passable
sidewalks. City seems to be fragmented, brutal and
compassionless; commercialized to the extreme. No wonder:
it had been shaped after the 1965 military coup that
killed between 2 and 3 million people, from those
belonging to the leftist parties and movements to those
belonging to the ethnic and religious minorities.
MILITARY CONNECTION
Indonesia is still governed to a large extent by the old
military clique. President of the country - Susilo
Banbang Yudhoyono is retired four-star general. Outgoing
Governor Sutiyoso is also a (retired) top army brass:
Lieutenant general who served in the Indonesian military
for three decades, and was involved in Indonesia's
occupation of East Timor. It has been alleged at the
inquest that Sutiyoso had been a member of 'Team Susi' -
one of the units of the Indonesian military that were
involved in the savagely brutal advancement on Balibo on
the day in 1975 when five foreign journalists were
killed.
Not surprisingly, Fauzi Bowo's deputy will be another
retired general, this time retired Major General Prijanto
- described by Jakarta Post as "long time army
officer". This is a part of Prijanto's biography
published by Jakarta Post, (as it appears on their
website, unedited and linguistically uncorrected):
"Maj. Gen. (ret) Prijanto is a long time Army
officer who started his career at air defense infantry
division of the Army's Strategic Reserves Command in
1976. He served in the division for eleven years before
being promoted as the governor of the Army's Military
Academy in Magelang in 1987. His field expertise was
tested when he was deployed to East Timor (now Republic
of Timor Leste) as chief squad of air defense infantry at
Operasi Seroja (Lotus Operation) to East Timor in 1978.
The operation which last from 1975 to 1979 is aimed to
curb efforts from Fretilin, a movement from a group of
indigenous Timorese who wants separation from Indonesia.
Aside from the operation, Prijanto spent most of his
career as an off-field officer. He spent most of his
career over the last decade at the Jakarta Military in
various divisions, mostly at the defense infantry
division, which he knows best. Known as a diligent
officer who always complies to his chief's command, he
was appointed in 1995 as head of a team of private
assistant of Let. Gen. (ret) AM Hendropriyono who serves
as a commander at that time. Prijanto also had served as
coordinator of private assistant of Gen. (ret) Wiranto
when he was the Indonesia Military Chief in 1998 before
returning to the Jakarta Military Command as a regional
military commander a year after that"...
It is worth remembering that some of the worst atrocities
in East Timor took place during the time when General
Wiranto was "in charge".
Lotus Operation (Operasi Seroja) in which Prijanto
actively participated began on December 7th, 1975. With
the US approval, Indonesian forces landed a massive air
and sea invasion utilizing almost entirely the
US-supplied weapons and equipment. By mid February,
around 60.000 men, women and children of tiny East Timor
were dead. United Nations never accepted occupation and
colonization of East Timor.
But the story doesn't end here. The opponent of Fauzi
Bowo was no civilian either. He served as the former
Deputy National Police Chief; a military man as well,
considering that in the past police and the army were
parts of the same organization. In a "touching"
biography, Jakarta Post writes: "Adang Daradjatun's
ambition since childhood was to join the police or
military... After Adang graduated from high school, his
father wanted him to apply to Bandung's Padjadjaran
University or the Bandung Institute of Technology. But
Adang insisted on becoming a police officer. He told his
father he was impressed by the discipline of police
officers. Eventually his father relented and Adang was
accepted at Akabri in 1968, graduating in 1971"...
That's some ambition, considering that he joined the
force just 3 years after Indonesian military massacred
between 2 and 3 million innocent people.
CHOICE? WHAT CHOICE?
"We definitely don't support any candidate who would
implement regulations that limit women's rights, like
those in Tangerang City", said Masruchah, the
secretary-general of Indonesia's Women Coalition (KPI),
referring to the Tangerang bylaw that prohibits women
from leaving their home at night.
Most of the citizens of Jakarta did not go to polls to
vote for the candidate of their choice, as there were no
candidates willing to address the grievances of the
majority. They voted to prevent calamity, and the face of
calamity was resembled, at least for the most of them, an
Islamic party taking over the governance of their capital
city. Several areas of Java are now facing discriminatory
restrictions imposed by sharia-law. In theory, sharia
bylaws are unconstitutional, but extremely weak and
indecisive administration of SBY is unwilling or unable
to confront increasingly strong Islamist movements and
organizations. Many citizens of Indonesia worry that
secular essence of Indonesian state is in danger.
Primarily, pre-election campaign consisted of colorful
pop music concerts and "stars" expressing
support for one of two candidates. Eventually, both
candidates appeared on television screens hugging
elderly, children and the poor. Neither of them offered
serious analyses of devastating future Jakarta is facing.
And the media, as always compliant, restrained from
asking hard questions. As a result, only a handful
resident of the capital believes that elections will have
deep impact on their lives. Cynicism is growing but the
opposition is fragmented and weak, natural for the
country where the military and religion play decisive
role.
In the meantime, rotting garbage contaminates poor
neighborhoods and clogging canals. Corruption is so
institutionalized that police would not investigate car
theft or burglary, unless offered considerable sum of
money in advance. "When one of our correspondents is
robbed, we call police and complain", says one of
editors of national news magazine who doesn't want to be
identified. "They often apologize and bring the loot
back in just a few hours. What does it mean? That police
is working with the thieves. How can you fight corruption
with such police force?"
Millions of uninsured and unprotected people are living
in shacks. Even those surviving under the bridges in the
makeshift carton dwellings are facing extortion: they are
forced to pay "rent" to local thugs and
"officials". Social services already collapsed,
and so did the infrastructure. Next to the luxury hotels,
people eat in dirty stalls, often washing dishes with the
water from open sewage. If the situation doesn't change
dramatically, citizens of Jakarta may be tempted to turn
to conservative Islam, considering it the only force
willing to "protect" them. But in these latest
elections they had still opted for "secular"
candidate, for the "city planner" and his
deputy who had "proven himself" by bombing East
Timorese civilian population more than 30 years ago.
ANDRE VLTCHEK: Czech/American novelist, playwright,
filmmaker and journalist, co-founder of
Mainstay Press (www.mainstaypress.org),
publishing house for political fiction, editorial
director of Asiana Press Agency (www.asiana-press-agency.com).
Senior fellow at Oakland Institute. He presently works
and resides in Asia and South Pacific and can be reached
at: andre-wcn@usa.net
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